Sunday, April 26, 2009

This Week in Buffy History: April 26-May 2

April 26
1978 - Ivana Milicevic born (played Sam Finn in Episode 6.15 “As You Were”)

April 28
1973 - Elisabeth Rohm born (played Kate Lockley on Angel)
1997 - Episode 1.8 “I Robot, You Jane” airs on The WB
1998 - Episode 2.19 “I Only Have Eyes For You” airs on The WB
2004 - Angel Episode 5.19 “Time Bomb” airs on The WB

April 29
2002 - Angel Episode 3.19 “The Price” airs on The WB
2003 - Episode 7.19 “Empty Places” airs on UPN

April 30
2002 - Episode 6.18 “Entropy” airs on UPN
2003 - Angel Episode 4.21 “Peace Out” airs on The WB

May 1
1972 - Bailey Chase born (played Graham Miller)
1972 - Julie Benz born (played Darla)
2001 - Episode 5.19 “Tough Love” airs on The WB
2001 - Angel Episode 2.19 “Belonging” airs on The WB

May 2
1981 - Navi Rawat born (played Dana on Angel Episode 5.11 “Damage”)
1990 - Kay Panabaker born (played the Girl in the White Room on Angel)
2000 - Episode 4.19 “New Moon Rising” airs on The WB
2000 - Angel Episode 1.19 “Sanctuary” airs on The WB

Saturday, April 25, 2009

My 2009 NFL Mock Draft

Let's be honest -- no one REALLY knows what's going to happen in a few hours, but I'm gonna take a shot at it. Obviously, one trade early on could throw this whole thing off.

1. Lions - Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
- This is obviously a done deal.

2. Rams - Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
- A good OT to replace the released Orlando Pace.

3. Chiefs - Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
- I like Tyson Jackson, but I think the sudden talk about him at this spot is a smokescreen. I could be wrong, but I think Curry is still the pick here.

4. Seahawks - Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
- I'm not sure the Seahawks will actually be the team picking Sanchez (or keeping him), but I think this is where he goes.

5. Browns - Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
- Whoever is playing QB for Cleveland will need someone to throw to. With Kellen Winslow gone and Donte' Stallworth in legal trouble, Crabtree is a perfect fit here.

6. Bengals - Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
- Would the Bengals really take Smith with Monroe still on the board? Look at the game film, and tell me which guy was better in college.

7. Raiders - Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
- Al Davis will be calling for the splashy pick with Jeremy Maclin, but Monroe is the safer pick here, and will be able to protect the big-money investments in Russell and McFadden.

8. Jaguars - Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
- Having released Matt Jones this offseason, the Jags need a playmaker.

9. Packers - B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
- Raji is the perfect run-stuffer for Green Bay's defense (which was 26th against the run last season).

10. 49ers - Aaron Maybin, LB/DE, Penn State
- Two decades ago, the 49ers revolutionized the "elephant" hybrid position, which is the perfect role for Maybin to play.

11. Bills - Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
- The Bills struggled to get to the quarterback last season, and Jackson's versatility is perfect for their defensive line.

12. Broncos - Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
- Orakpo represents the best value on the board at this spot, and he fills a need for Denver. They could take a running back here, but one of the top 3 (Moreno, Wells, Brown) should be available at 18.

13. Redskins - Robert Ayers, DE, Tennesse
Having signed one Vols DL in the offseason (Albert Haynesworth), the 'Skins go back to Knoxville for an outside pass rusher -- something Jason Taylor wasn't for them last season.

14. Saints - Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
I don't know how legit the Beanie Wells injury rumors are, but they may be enough to push the Saints to Moreno.

15. Texans - Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
Can you name a single tight end on the Texans roster? This is a team in need of targets for Matt Schaub.

16. Chargers - Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
I've seen a lot of mock drafts that have the Chargers picking a running back here. I can't imagine San Diego paying big money to three running backs.

17. Jets - Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina
If the Jets can't trade up to get a QB, then they'll settle for getting a big target for the ones they have.

18. Broncos - Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State
Hopefully Wells works out better for Denver than the last Ohio State running back they draft.

19. Buccaneers - Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss
The Bucs will build from the inside out, like they did when they were one of the best defensive teams in the league.

20. Lions - Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
Since the Lions went QB first overall, they should probably think about getting someone to protect him here.

21. Eagles - Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers
The Eagles need a big wide receiver to pair with the speedy DeSean Jackson. Britt is perfect for that role.

22. Vikings - Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State
Is Minnesota really sold on Tarvaris Jackson? I don't think so

23. Patriots - Brian Cushing, OLB, USC
I know I've got the first of the USC linebackers going later than most people, but they're about to go soon.

24. Falcons - Everette Brown, DE, Florida State
It pains me to say this, but Jamaal Anderson just hasn't worked out for Atlanta. Now that they've got their TE through trade, they can focus on the D-line.

25. Dolphins - Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
He fills a need and represents a good value here.

26. Ravens - Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC
Ray Lewis can't play forever, so the Ravens look to another "Rey" to replace him.

27. Colts - Clay Matthews, OLB, USC
Some people think the Colts are going to go WR here to replace Marvin Harrison, but they still have Wayne and Gonzalez for Manning to throw to.

28. Bills - Eben Britton, T, Arizona
With the pick they got in the Jason Peters trade, the Bills draft his replacement. Makes sense.

29. Giants - Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
The Giants have to go receiver here, right? Also, I just realized Percy Harvin is still on my board.

30. Titans - Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
And now he's not! WR is the top need for the Titans, and while Harvin is a risk player, he's a risk worth taking this late in the round.

31. Cardinals - Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut
With Edgerrin James still wanting out, the Cards get their every-down back.

32. Steelers - Max Unger, C, Oregon
I think Alex Mack is the better pure center, but Unger is versatile enough to play 4 of the 5 offensive line spots, and the Steelers need help all over their line.

Sunday, April 19, 2009

This Week in Buffy History: April 19-25

April 20
1971 - Brody Hutzler born (played Landok in season 2 of Angel)

April 21
2004 - Angel Episode 5.18 “Origin” airs on The WB

April 22
2002 - Angel Episode 3.18 “Double or Nothing” airs on The WB

April 23
2003 - Angel Episode 4.20 “Sacrifice” airs on The WB

April 24
1975 - Thad Luckinbill born (played R.J. Brooks in Episode 7.06 “Him”)
1977 - Eric Balfour born (played Jesse in Season 1)
1985 - Courtnee Draper born (played Annabelle in Episode 7.10 “Bring on the Night”)
2001 - Episode 5.18 “Intervention” airs on The WB
2001 - Angel Episode 2.18 “Dead End” airs on The WB

April 25
1969 - Gina Torres born (played Jasmine in Angel Season 4)
2000 - Episode 4.18 “Where the Wild Things Are” airs on The WB
2000 - Angel Episode 4.18 “Five by Five” airs on The WB

Friday, April 17, 2009

AdamReisinger.com First Round NBA Playoff Picks

OK, so once again I’m not officially part of the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown, but I’m close. One of my friends is using my picks as guidance for her picks, so that’s a start. You’ll remember last year, without any kind of “system” I unofficially held my own against some of the brightest statistical minds in basketball.

This year, I’ve decided to take a look at some of the advanced numbers in making my picks. Did I let my gut affect my choices? Sure, but not as much as I used to. On to the picks.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Cavaliers vs 8. Pistons
Pick: Cavaliers in 4
Reasons: the Pistons won just 35% of their games against the Top 10 teams in the league in PPG Allowed. The Cavs defense is among the best in the game. A worse Cavs team stretched a better Detroit team to 7 games in '06 and won in 6 in '07. This series won't be as close.

2. Celtics vs 7. Bulls
Pick: Celtics in 7
Reasons: throw out the full-season stats for both of these teams. The Celtics probably won't have Kevin Garnett, and the Bulls DO have their trade-deadline acquisitions. Over the last 25% of the season, the Bulls have actually had a better scoring margin (+3.95) than the Celtics (+2.76). However, Chicago did it against a softer schedule, and even with Garnett out, the Celtics should step up like they did in Game 7 against Atlanta last year.

3. Magic vs 6. 76ers
Pick: Magic in 4
Reasons: The 76ers have actually ranked among the bottom half of the league in scoring margin over the last part of the schedule, while Orlando is among the league's best in that category. The Magic swept the regular season series, and assuming Hedo Turkoglu is healthy, Orlando has too many weapons for the 76ers (who rank 19th in the league in defensive effective FG%).

4. Hawks vs 5. Heat
Pick: Hawks in 6
Reasons: The Hawks rank 10 spots higher in offensive efficiency (the two teams are nearly identical in defensive efficiency). Why the big difference? Well, Miami doesn't grab offensive rebounds at a good rate, and doesn't get to the line (save for D-Wade, of course). The Heat's struggles on the offensive glass should be mitigated by the Hawks, who are one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the league. What will kill Miami is the free throw shooting. In their head-to-head meetings this year Atlanta made more free throws (85) than Miami attempted (56). Considering the 3 games were decided by an average of 2 points, that's too much of a difference to ignore.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Lakers vs 8. Jazz
Pick: Lakers in 4
Reasons: My gut feeling is that the Jazz will find a way to win a game in this series, like they did in the regular season against the Lakers, but let's take a look at that Feb. 11 game. The Jazz shot nearly 59% from the field, and yet only won by 4. The Lakers shot 26.3% from 3-point range  -- if they shoot their season average in that game, they make 2 more threes and win the game. Simply, the Lakers aren't a good matchup for Utah.

2. Nuggets vs 7. Hornets
Pick: Nuggets in 6
Reasons: The Nuggets and Hornets split their season series, but one of Denver's losses came without Carmelo Anthony. The key to this series? Peja Stojakovic. Denver was a middle of the pack team at defending the three, and allowed Peja to shoot 50% in the 3 games he played (for the season, he shot less than 38% against all other opponents). Denver can't count on aggressively crashing down on Chris Paul off of Peja, so they'll need the interior defense to keep playing strong (Denver's opponents shoot just 55.3% on inside shots, the best in the league).

3. Spurs vs 6. Mavericks
Pick: Spurs in 7
Nuggets: You really can't count on much from the regular season, since the Spurs won't have Manu, and Tim Duncan is hobbling. Interestingly, these two teams did play a game in which Ginobili and Duncan both sat out, and San Antonio won by 17. You don't want to put too much stock in one game, but this season, Tony Parker regularly torched Jason Kidd. Expect Parker to carry San Antonio to the second round.

4. Blazers vs 5. Rockets
Pick: Blazers in 5
Reasons: Very quietly, the Blazers ended the season #3 in John Hollinger's power rankings and have the second-best probability to win the West based on basketball-reference's formula. Portland also has a wave of big men to send at Yao, who shot just 42.1% in three head-to-head meetings this season. Houston did win two of those three games, but the Blazers are going into the playoffs playing their best basketball of the season.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

AdamReisinger.com 2008-09 NBA Awards

Well, with the NBA regular season over, it’s time for me to make my awards picks. I’ve probably watched more NBA action this season than ever before, thanks to the phenomenal League Pass Broadband package. Plus, with my favorite team winning 66 games, it was a good season to watch. Let’s run down the individual awards.

MVP: LeBron James
In my mind, this isn’t even close. LeBron put up one of the best PER ratings (a measure of overall efficiency) of all-time on a 66-win team. This should be the first of many MVP awards for King James.
Runners-up: Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard

Rookie of the Year: Derrick Rose
Point guard is probably the hardest position for a rookie to play, as he’s asked to be his team’s on-court leader and playmaker. Yet Rose took the role and ran with it once given the chance in Chicago.
Runners-up: Brook Lopez, O.J. Mayo

Coach of the Year: Mike Brown
I've given him a lot of grief over the years, but he put together a great system for this team. LeBron gets most of the credit (and deservedly so) for the Cavs success, but Brown found a way to turn a team with one legit superstar into one of the winningest teams in NBA history.
Runners-up: Erik Spolestra, Rick Adelman

Most Improved Player: Kevin Durant
I know players are supposed to make improvements from their first to second year, but Durant doesn't get enough credit for how much he improved (and a lot of that was Scott Brooks playing him at the right position).
Runners-up: Devin Harris, Anderson Varejao

Sixth Man of the Year: Jason Terry
He's instant offense off the Mavs bench (and a standout on my fantasy team).
Runners-up: Nate Robinson, J.R. Smith

Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard
I really want to give this to LeBron too, but Howard is bananas on defense. Still, LeBron should be first-team All-Defense.
Runners-up: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade

All-NBA First Team
G - Kobe Bryant
G - Dwyane Wade
F - LeBron James
F - Dirk Nowitzki
C - Dwight Howard
How can I have CP3 higher than Kobe on my MVP ballot, but put Kobe on All-NBA ahead of him? Well, it comes down to the definitions (in my mind). Paul was more VALUABLE to the Hornets, but Kobe was better.

All-NBA Second Team
G - Chris Paul
G - Brandon Roy
F - Paul Pierce
F - Tim Duncan
C - Yao Ming
Pierce barely cracked the Top 50 in PER this season, but his impact on the Celtics was undeniable. Despite missing Kevin Garnett for nearly 1/3 of the season, Boston still won 60 games.

All-NBA Third Team
G - Chauncey Billups
G - Tony Parker
F - Pau Gasol
F - Carmelo Anthony
C - Shaquille O’Neal
Shaq is the only player on any of my three teams that didn’t make the playoffs. Leading a team to the postseason is what pushed Carmelo over Danny Granger for the last forward spot. Garnett simply missed too much time (and wasn’t his outstanding self from December-February anyway) to qualify.

All-Defense First Team
G - Dwyane Wade
G - Chris Paul
F - LeBron James
F - Shane Battier
C - Dwight Howard

All-Defense Second Team
G - Rajon Rondo
G - Kobe Bryant
F - Ron Artest
F - Tim Duncan
C - Chris Andersen
Yes, The Birdman! He was crazy good on the defensive end this year, for a team that was supposed to fall apart defensively after losing Camby and Najera.

Sunday, April 12, 2009

This Week in Buffy History: April 12-18

April 12
1971 - Nicholas Brendon born (played Xander)
1971 - Kelly Donovan born (played Xander double in Season 5)

April 14
1977 - Sarah Michelle Gellar born (played Buffy)
1997 - Episode 1.07 “Angel” airs on The WB
2004 - Angel Episode 5.17 “Underneath” airs on The WB

April 15
2002 - Angel Episode 3.17 “Forgiving” airs on The WB
2003 - Episode 7.18 “Dirty Girls” airs on UPN

April 16
2003 - Angel Episode 4.19 “The Magic Bullet” airs on The WB

April 17
1955 - Kristine Sutherland born (played Joyce Summers)
2001 - Episode 5.17 “Forever” airs on The WB
2001 - Angel Episode 2.17 “Disharmony” airs on The WB

Sunday, April 05, 2009

This Week in Buffy History: April 5-11

April 7
1997 - Episode 1.6 “The Pack” airs on The WB

April 8
1973 - Emma Caulfield born (played Anya)

April 9
1974 - Todd Duffey born (played Murk in Season 5)
2003 - Angel Episode 4.18 “Shiny Happy People” airs on The WB

April 11
1932 - Joel Grey born (played Doc in Season 5)